00:00:00 | Welcome and Sound Check
00:03:34 | BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) Forecast
00:22:22 | Solar Storm and Aurora Five-Day Outlooks
00:25:06 | Solar Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout Five-Day Outlook
00:26:32 | Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation Five Day Outlook
00:27:05 | Post BLUF Q&A and Deep Dive
This live forecast was made by and for patrons of Patreon. Without their generosity this briefing could not have been made.
,,eXyYnG3FpX4,UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag, Knowledge, channel_UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag, video_eXyYnG3FpX4,Active farside regions are rotating back into Earth-view and firing large flares! Region 3901 leads the charge with an M3.7-flare earlier today. Expect #RadioBlackout risk & dayside radio band noise to increase this week. Earth-directed #solarstorm risk also rises now. #shorts
,,dKa8nju4Em0,UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag, Knowledge, channel_UCkXjdDQ-db0xz8f4PKgKsag, video_dKa8nju4Em0,This is an excerpt from my full forecast "Coronal Holes, Fast Wind, and Filament Eye Candy | Space Weather Spotlight 14 November 2024" on You Tube. See the link for the full forecast: https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY #shorts
,1,This week our Sun stays active but has terrible aim. Earth has dodged at least four solar storms launched off the Earth-facing Sun. The only expected impact will be from some fast solar wind over the next couple of days, but that shouldnt cause too much trouble for radio amateurs participating in "Field Day" this weekend. Aurora photographers at high latitudes might get a chance for some good views though. We are also anticipating old Region 3697, which will begin to rotate back into Earth view starting around Saturday. Expect the chance for big flares and radio blackouts to begin to rise again as we move into next week. This region has been busy firing big flares and storms on the Sun's farside so we could see this behavior continue once it rotates into view. Learn the details of the coming fast solar wind, watch some of the gorgeous filament eruptions over the past couple of days, as well as some that have yet to erupt, and see what else our Sun has in store.
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
https://www.millersville.edu/swen
Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit:
https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov
For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.
Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch
Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
NASA/CCMC/M2M Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
NOAA/SWPC Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/
Radio Propagation: https://www.tvcomm.co.uk/g7izu/atlantic-mf-hf-propagation-20min-persistence/
Near-Earth radiation environment: https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
GEOCHRON Weather Display: www.geochron.com
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html
Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.
Images c/o NASA/NOAA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, DSCOVR, STEREO, CCMC, M2M, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and so much more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
,1,The first solar storm in this train has hit! The storm is quite fast so the initial impact caused a momentary G4-level response.
00:00:00 | Introduction
00:00:19 | Solar Events Synopsis
00:04:59 | 8th Earth-Directed Solar Storm Launch (just today)
00:05:08 | Close up and Personal with Region 3664 and 3668
00:06:47 | Radio Blackout Threat Meter
00:08:46 | The Solar Storm Train and Prediction Models
00:13:19 | Moon Phase
00:13:36 | Solar Storm and Aurora 5-day Outlooks
00:16:04 | Solar Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout 5-Day Outlook
00:17:19 | Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation 5-Day Outlook
00:18:29 | Summary
Right now we are sitting at G3+ levels due to a strong, but wildly fluctuating magnetic field. This is expected while we travel through the "turbulent" outer envelope of this fast-moving storm. Aurora views will likely grace the skies tonight through the weekend as this series of storms hit back-to-back. Learn the details of how this solar storm train came about, learn where and when aurora will be visible, discover how these storms are impacting communications and navigation around the globe, and find out how they might impact you.
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
https://www.millersville.edu/swen
Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit:
https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov
For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.
Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch
Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
NASA/CCMC/M2M Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
NOAA/SWPC Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/
Radio Propagation: https://www.tvcomm.co.uk/g7izu/atlantic-mf-hf-propagation-20min-persistence/
Near-Earth radiation environment: https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
GEOCHRON Weather Display: www.geochron.com
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html
Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.
Images c/o NASA/NOAA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, DSCOVR, STEREO, CCMC, M2M, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and so much more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.
,1,00:00:00 | Welcome and Sound Check
00:03:34 | BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) Forecast
00:22:22 | Solar Storm and Aurora Five-Day Outlooks
00:25:06 | Solar Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout Five-Day Outlook
00:26:32 | Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation Five Day Outlook
00:27:05 | Post BLUF Q&A and Deep Dive
This live forecast was made by and for patrons of Patreon. Without their generosity this briefing could not have been made.
